Could better mobile networks create more U.S. jobs?

Job growth is widely hailed as a necessary component of the U.S. economic recovery. A new Deloitte report contends that by 2016, faster 4G wireless networks could directly create from 371,000 to 771,000 U.S. jobs. These would mainly be jobs at wireless carriers and other telecommunications companies. Deloitte expects that these companies will invest $25 to $53 billion in building 4G networks over the next few years.
But wait, there's more: As with the growth of the Internet, widely deployed 4G wireless networks may spur the development of entirely new businesses and professions that capitalize on this infrastructure. As Deloitte vice chairman and U.S. media and telecommunications sector leader Phil Asmundson recently told Marketplace Tech Report: "4G is really going to be that opportunity to literally leave your computer behind."
This could have profound implications for job creation in rural areas, many of which have been hit especially hard by the recession. Conventional "wired" broadband providers have generally lagged in connecting rural areas. This in turn has impaired educational and economic prospects for many rural residents.
"To bolster the nation's economic recovery, it will be important for the U.S. to compete effectively in the global race to deploy 4G networks," says the Deloitte report.
That could be a problem, given the current U.S. mobile broadband landscape.
First, consider the growing global competition. Deloitte noted: "More than 150 carriers in 60 countries are committed to 4G deployments and trials. ... South Korea and Sweden already have substantial 4G deployments. China is a driving force behind the development of a competing version of LTE and is pushing to develop an ecosystem around the technology that could give Chinese vendors a competitive edge. Consequently, the U.S. cannot underestimate the competitive threat from abroad, particularly in a high-visibility area such as mobile broadband."
Also, "U.S. mobile broadband use is pressing against the limits of available spectrum, and other countries are on track to exceed U.S. spectrum supply."
U.S. spectrum availability is a highly controversial topic. Some experts, such as Onyeije Consulting, contend that the problem can be solved with better technology for wireless networks and devices. Others claim it's mostly a manufactured limitation based on how the FCC has handled allocation and licensing of the spectrum (particularly in terms of military spectrum allocations).
One thing is clear: Current U.S. wireless technologies and spectrum-licensing practices probably won't support the kind of robust mobile broadband growth -- and job growth -- that Deloitte's more optimistic outlook envisions.
Then there's the competition issue. In a market economy, competition is generally seen as a virtue because it breeds innovative solutions. But the U.S. wireless industry is becoming steadily less competitive -- and perhaps less innovative -- with each passing year.
Currently the lion's share of U.S. wireless carriers offering mobile broadband are consolidated into two giant and two medium-sized companies -- AT&T, Sprint Nextel, T-Mobile and Verizon -- and we're rapidly converging toward an AT&T/Verizon duopoly.
Also, the major U.S. wireless carriers have already "slowed down" 4G networks by diluting the very definition of 4G. The networks that U.S. carriers currently are deploying are a long way from meeting the 4G data-speed standard, making "4G" little more than a marketing term.
As Christina Warren explained in Mashable, "Most of the systems billed as '4G' could be more accurately called 3.5G, or 3.75G. But the plan is for these systems to upgrade to full 4G in the future. 4G data can move faster, and it can get to more people.
"The promise of 4G is twofold: Cellular data speeds will be faster -- 10 times faster than current 3G speeds. And the technology can help solve the 'last mile' dilemma (the difficult final leg of connecting customers to a network) that prevents rural areas from getting service."
As long as mobile broadband continues to be something that Americans access mainly through smartphones and tablets (which typically come with pricey, lengthy carrier contracts), decreasing competition among U.S. wireless carriers may ultimately end up slowing the deployment, affordability, and accessibility of 4G networks.
It is possible that alternative mobile broadband retailers, such as Clearwire, may play a growing role in U.S. mobile broadband. But Clearwire currently doesn't offer roaming over cell phone data networks, so if you're out of their range you're out of mobile broadband, period. Also, Clearwire works via separate modems that connect to Wi-Fi-enabled devices, not directly via cell phones -- which means its users must carry, connect, and pay for yet another device.
Then there are players like Lightsquared, which is seeking FCC approval to deploy a nationwide wholesale mobile broadband network. This in turn could support many retail mobile broadband providers, even cell-phone carriers such as Sprint. But as the National Journal reports this week, that plan is beset by problems related to the propensity of Lightsquared's technology to interfere with Global Positioning System (GPS) technology.
CNET reports that even the Dish Network satellite TV provider is considering deploying a 4G data network. But so far this looks more likely to apply to location-based customers such as homes or businesses, rather than mobile users.
Historically, wider geographic access to infrastructure -- from telephone lines and power grids to highways, airlines, and shipping -- has usually yielded a sustainable net creation of jobs.
Whether Deloitte's hopeful vision comes to pass depends largely on whether U.S. wireless carriers, regulators, and technology companies decide to cooperate and compromise for the greater good, rather than carving out turf. And whether U.S. consumers, and workers, can learn and organize enough to lobby effectively for their own long-term economic interests.